Difference between revisions of "3rd COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction"

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Dear Colleagues welcome to Theoretical_Geography_VVOIP_Debates website and the upcoming online colloquium titled:

Current Debate 3.10
3rd Debate COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction
June 26th-27th, 2020

Debate 3.7. - 2019–nCoV, March 20th-21st, 2020
Debate 3.8 - COVID-19 by the Numbers, Modes, Big Data, and Reality, April 24th-25th, 2020
Proceedings of Past Debates
COVID-19 by the Numbers, Models, Big Data, and Reality - April 24th - 25th, 2020
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Victoria Lopez, Madrid University
A COVID-19 mathematical model based on Flow Networks and SIR.[18]
2 Axel Branderburg, KTH Stockholm Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic.[19]
3 Alessio Muscillo, University of Sienna
Disease spreading in social networks and unintended consequences of weak social distancing.[20]
4 Marco Paggi, IMT School, Lucca Simulation of Covid-19 epidemic evolution: are compartmental models really predictive?[21]
5 Venkatesha Prasad, Delft University
A simple Stochastic SIR model for COVID-19.[22]
6 Ali Nasseri, British Columbia University
Planning as Inference in Epidemiological Dynamic Models.[23]
7 Anand Sahasranaman, Imperial College London
Data and models of COVID-19 in India.[24]
8 V. K. Jindal, Penjab University COVID-19 – a realistic model for saturation, growth and decay of the India specific disease.[25]
9 Sebastian Gonçalves, Physics Institute
Trends and Urban scaling in the COVID-19 pandemic.[26]
10 Josimar Chire, ICMC Brasil
Social Sensors to Monitor COVID-19 South American Countries.[27]
COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction - May 15th -16th, 2020
# Lecturer Name
Lecture Title
1 David S. Jones, Harvard University History in a Crisis—Lessons for Covid-19
2 Christofer Brandt, Universität Greifswald
Transparent comparison and prediction of corona numbers
3 Gaetano Perone, University of Bergamo An Arima Model to Forecast the Spread and the final size of COVID-2019 Epidemic in Italy
4 Keno Krewer, Max Planck Institute
Time-resolving an ongoing outbreak with Fourier analysis
5 Gerry Killeen, University College Cork
Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it.
6 Michael Li, University of Alberta Why it is difficulty to make accurate predictions of COVID-19 epidemics?
7 V.K. Jindal, Panjab University
COVID-19 Primary and secondary infection as order parameter – a unifying global model.
8 Ashis Das, World Bank
Rapid development of an open-access artificial intelligence decision support tool for CoVID-19 mortality prediction
9 Fulgensia Mbabazi, Busitema University
A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda

The VVoIP stands for Voice and Video over Internet Protocol and allows researchers to participate at low-budget directly from your office in a scientific panel discussion on the subjects related to your interests and research.

The Theoretical_Geography_VVOIP_Debates are effective, convenient, and inexpensive video-conferencing encouraging the free and effective exchange of ideas, concepts, and research results.

Theoretical_Geography_VVOIP_Debates provides an opportunity for a critical review of the intersection between theoretical geography and GIScience. It is intended that this review be of value to the broadly interdisciplinary community of scholars who increasingly make use of geographic information and spatial reasoning in research and teaching. Presentations and discussions will feature historical and intellectual perspectives, current status, and challenges for on-going investigations in such topics as computational cartography and modeling, landscape dynamics, space-time analysis, spatial thinking, time geography, and visualization of spatial patterns and processes.

Scientific Committees

International Scientific Committee of Theoretical Geography Debates

Debate 3.10: Organizational Committee

  • Dr. Matteo (Matt) Ferensby - Organizer and moderator,
  • Anna Adamchewsky - secretary, bookkeeping, © managing, and General Data Protection Regulation privacy:Eu.png Regulation (EU) 2016/679, and Villa Europa representative.
  • Mikołaj Sienicki - computer administrator, webmaster, and technical editor,
  • Anja Förster - graphics, design, and general tasks of data managing.

Topics of COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction

The topic of the COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction is the interdisciplinary scientific overview of a novel strain of coronavirus and its forecast and prediction.


3rd Debate COVID-19, Forecast and Prediction, June 26th - 27th, 2020
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Maziar Nekovee, Sussex University Understanding the spreading patterns of COVID-19 in UK and its impact on exit strategies.
2 Martijn J. Hoogeveen, Open Universiteit Pollen Explains Flu-like & Covid-19 Seasonality: developing a predictive model
3 Henrik Hult, KTH Estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Sweden
4 Reyer Garlagh, Tilburg University Closed-Form Solutions for Optimal Social Distancing in a SIR Model of COVID-19 Suppression
5 Francesco Piazza, CNRS-Orleans COVID-19: The unreasonable effectiveness of simple models
6 Benjamin Ambrosio, Universite du Havre On a coupled time-dependent SIR models fitting with New York and New-Jersey states COVID-19 data
7 Konstantinos Gkiotsalitis, U of Twente Optimal frequency setting of metro services in the age of COVID-19 distancing measures
8 Beatrize Soane, Sorbonne Université A Scaling Approach to Estimate the COVID-19 Rate of Infections.
9 Bernateta Cerrutti, Independent Did lockdowns serve their purpose?
10 Oliver Johnson, Bristol University Using non-standard measures of population density to predict the spread of COVID-19
11 Subir Das, JNCASR Spread of COVID-19: How robust are the universal features?
12 Andrew Hart, University of Chile An agent-based model for COVID-19, lockdown in Santiago and the reproduction Matrix

Dates to Observe

The colloquium will take place on June 26th through 27th, 2020.

In order to accommodate fellow researchers from different time-zones, the colloquium will start at 5 pm of European Time (GMT+1). Depending upon the final geographical distribution of participants, the opening time may change accordingly. Here is Time_Zone_Calculator for your convenience [28]


Registration is required for all conference participants preferably until June 20th, 2020

It is recommended to make the registration online by forwarding to the e-mail address


the following customary information:

  • Your full name,
  • Institution address,
  • Phone number, Skype name,
  • Tentative title of your PowerPoint presentation,
  • Abstract.

We comply with the Europen Union law GDPR (The General Data Protection Regulation - 25 May 2018).Eu.png[29]

Confirmation will be sent to all participants by the organizers upon receipt of registration and payment.

Registration Fee (VAT excluded)

COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction
Debate 3.10: June 26th - 27th, 2020
COVID-19 Debate

Colloquium Fees

Early Registration

(before June 20th, 2020)

Regular Registration

(after June 20th, 2020)

Junior researchers, postdocs & Ph.D. students €190 €230
Senior Researchers €250 €290

Note that the fee is given in € (Euro). We cannot accept cash payments. Every transaction must go through the bank account. Registration date = participant wire date.

Cancellation policy of registration

All the cancellations and changes must be sent to the organizer in written form (paper). All refunds will be processed after the conference. Please send your exact bank account details in the written cancellation.

Refund of the registration fee will be made as follows:

100% refund (minus an administrative fee of €67.23 (net)) – in case of cancellation received before June 20th, 2020.

No refund – in case of cancellation, received after June 20th, 2020.


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Your Lecture

Your lecture will be presented in an ordinary (usual) way using MS PowerPoint presentation. In order to allow the participants and the public to view your PowerPoint presentation please use the Skype feature titled Screen Sharing (just click on Skype icon Icon.png)

We advise having plenty of light in your room. Make sure that your microphone is all the time off, except the time when you're delivering a lecture and ask a question. Otherwise, all background noises will be recorded.

Debate Proceedings

All debate proceedings will be video-voice recorded and after required editing will be published on the internet at the debate website and various repositories.