Difference between revisions of "COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction"

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Dear Colleagues welcome to Theoretical_Geography_VVOIP_Debates website and the upcoming online colloquium titled:

Current Debate 3.9
COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction
May 15th-16th, 2020

Past Debates
Debate 3.7. - 2019–nCoV, March 20th-21st, 2020
Debate 3.8 - COVID-19 by the Numbers, Modes, Big Data, and Reality, April 24th-25th, 2020

The VVoIP stands for Voice and Video over Internet Protocol and allows researchers to participate at low-budget directly from your office in a scientific panel discussion on the subjects related to your interests and research.

The Theoretical_Geography_VVOIP_Debates are effective, convenient, and inexpensive video-conferencing encouraging the free and effective exchange of ideas, concepts, and research results.

Theoretical_Geography_VVOIP_Debates provides an opportunity for a critical review of the intersection between theoretical geography and GIScience. It is intended that this review be of value to the broadly interdisciplinary community of scholars who increasingly make use of geographic information and spatial reasoning in research and teaching. Presentations and discussions will feature historical and intellectual perspectives, current status, and challenges for on-going investigations in such topics as computational cartography and modeling, landscape dynamics, space-time analysis, spatial thinking, time geography, and visualization of spatial patterns and processes.

Scientific Committees

International Scientific Committee of Theoretical Geography Debates

Debate 3.8: Organizational Committee

  • Dr. Matteo (Matt) Ferensby - Organizer and moderator,
  • Anna Adamchewsky - secretary, bookkeeping, © managing, and General Data Protection Regulation privacy:Eu.png Regulation (EU) 2016/679,
  • Mikołaj Sienicki - computer administrator, webmaster, and technical editor,
  • Anja Förster - graphics, design, and general tasks of data managing.

Topics of COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction

The topic of the COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction is the interdisciplinary scientific overview of a novel strain of coronavirus and its forecast and prediction.


The program will be announced as soon as possible. Thank you for your patience.

COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction

May 15th -16th , 2020

Lecture Number Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 David S. Jones

Harvard University

History in a Crisis—Lessons for Covid-19
2 Christofer Brandt

Universität Greifswald

Transparent comparison and prediction of corona numbers
3 Gaetano Perone

University of Bergamo

An Arima Model to Forecast the Spread and the final size of COVID-2019 Epidemic in Italy
4 Keno Krewer

Max Planck Institute

Time-resolving an ongoing outbreak with Fourier analysis
5 Gerry Killeen

University College Cork

Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it.

6 Michael Li

University of Alberta

Why it is difficulty to make accurate predictions of COVID-19 epidemics?
7 V.K. Jindal

Panjab University

COVID-19 Primary and secondary infection as order parameter – a unifying global model.
8 Ashis Das

World Bank

Rapid development of an open-access artificial intelligence decision support tool

for CoVID-19 mortality prediction

9 Fulgensia Mbabazi

Busitema University Uganda

A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of

the COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda

Here below is the program of the last debate. As soon as we finish the editorial work it will be published on our youtube.com channel.

COVID-19 by the Numbers, Modes, Big Data, and Reality

April 24th, 2020

Lecture Number Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Victoria Lopez A COVID-19 mathematical model based on Flow Networks and SIR
2 Marco Picariello Covid-19 in italy: Lombardy vs Veneto containment strategy.
3 Axel Brandenburg Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic
4 Alessio Muscillo Disease spreading in social networks and unintended consequences …
5 Marco Paggi Simulation of Covid-19 epidemic evolution: are compartmental models really predictive?
6 Venkatesha Prasad A simple Stochastic SIR model for COVID-19
7 Ali Nasseri Planning as Inference in Epidemiological Models
8 Sahasranaman Data and models of COVID-19 in India
9 Jindal COVID-19 – a realistic model for saturation, growth and decay of the India specific disease
10 Sebastian Gonçalves Trends and Urban scaling in the COVID-19 pandemic
11 Josimar Saire Social Sensors to Monitor covid19 South American Countries
12 Ashutosh Simha A simple Stochastic SIR model for COVID-19
13 Tommaso Alberti ?

Dates to Observe

The colloquium will take place on May 15th through 16th, 2020.

In order to accommodate fellow researchers from different time-zones, the colloquium will start at 5 pm of European Time (GMT+1). Depending upon the final geographical distribution of participants, the opening time may change accordingly. Here is Time_Zone_Calculator for your convenience [18]


Registration is required for all conference participants preferably until May 15th, 2020

It is recommended to make the registration online by forwarding to the e-mail address


the following customary information:

  • Your full name,
  • Institution address,
  • Phone number, Skype name,
  • Tentative title of your PowerPoint presentation,
  • Abstract.

We comply with the Europen Union law GDPR (The General Data Protection Regulation - 25 May 2018).Eu.png[19]

Confirmation will be sent to all participants by the organizers upon receipt of registration and payment.

Registration Fee (VAT excluded)

COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction
Debate 3.9: May 15th - 16th, 2020
COVID-19 Debate

Colloquium Fees

Early Registration

(before May 10th, 2020)

Regular Registration

(after May 10th, 2020)

Junior researchers, postdocs & Ph.D. students €190 €230
Senior Researchers €250 €290

Note that the fee is given in € (Euro). We cannot accept cash payments. Every transaction must go through the bank account. Registration date = participant wire date.

Cancellation policy of registration

All the cancellations and changes must be sent to the organizer in written form (paper). All refunds will be processed after the conference. Please send your exact bank account details in the written cancellation.

Refund of the registration fee will be made as follows:

100% refund (minus an administrative fee of €67.23 (net)) – in case of cancellation received before April 10th, 2020.

No refund – in case of cancellation, received after May 10th, 2020.


All payments should be made in €. All charges due to bank transfers have to be paid by the sender. Let us know (theoretical-geography-debates@vvoip-theoretical-geography-debates.org) if you require a proforma invoice before payment. In all remaining cases, we will forward an invoice right after the payment will be received.

Bank (wire) transfer (in €) has to be made to:

  • Bank Name: Santander Bank
  • Street: Aleja Jana Pawła II 17
  • City: 00-854 Warszawa
  • Country: Poland, European Union
  • Account #: IBAN PL23799999950652418805040001
  • Account Holder Name: KS/Villa Europa

Your Lecture

Your lecture will be presented in an ordinary (usual) way using MS PowerPoint presentation. In order to allow the participants and the public to view your PowerPoint presentation please use the Skype feature titled Screen Sharing (just click on Skype icon Icon.png)

We advise having plenty of light in your room. Make sure that your microphone is all the time off, except the time when you're delivering a lecture and ask a question. Otherwise, all background noises will be recorded.

Debate Proceedings

Published At:

All debate proceedings will be video-voice recorded and after required editing will be published on the internet at the debate website and various repositories.